is projected to decline by 2.6 percent in 2012. This decrease is the result of hydropower use
falling by 0.4 quadrillion Btu (13.8 percent) as it begins to return to its long‐term average. The
decline in hydropower from 2011 to 2012 more than offsets the projected growth in the
consumption of other renewable energy forms. Renewable energy consumption increases 2.5
percent in 2013 as hydropower continues to decline (2.4 percent) but nonhydropower
renewables grow by an average of 5.0 percent.
Under current law, federal production tax credits for wind‐powered generation will not be
available for turbines that begin operating after the end of 2012. Wind‐powered generation,
which grew by 27 percent in 2011, is forecast to grow an additional 16 percent in 2012. The
outlook for wind capacity additions and generation in 2013 will likely depend on whatever
decision is made regarding the extension of production tax credits.
Solar energy continues robust growth, although the total amount remains relatively small.
Consumption is projected to grow by about 30 percent in both 2012 and 2013.
As a result of drought conditions depressing corn harvests throughout the Midwest, fuel ethanol
production fell from an average of 890 thousand bbl/d during the second quarter of 2012 to an
average of about 806 thousand bbl/d in October 2012. EIA expects ethanol production will
remain near current levels through the first half of 2013 and recover in the second half of 2013,
averaging over 850 thousand bbl/d (13.0 billion gallons) for the year. The projected lower
ethanol production is generally matched by higher ethanol imports and lower ethanol exports.
Biodiesel production averaged about 63 thousand bbl/d (0.97 billion gallons) in 2011. Forecast
biodiesel production averages 67 thousand bbl/d in 2012 and 82 thousand bbl/d in 2013, with
biodiesel blending meeting the Renewable Fuel Standard requirements of 1.0 billion gallons and
1.28 billion gallons, respectively, in those years.
fuel emissions are projected to further decline by 2.9 percent in 2012. This decline is followed
by an increase of 2.2 percent in 2013. Petroleum emissions fall by 1.5 percent in 2012 and grow
by 0.2 percent in 2013. Projected natural gas emissions rise by 5.1 percent in 2012 and fall by
0.8 percent in 2013. Forecast coal emissions decline 10.1 percent in 2012, but are projected to
rise by 7.2 percent in 2013 as rising natural gas prices lead to increases in coal‐fired electricity